Florida Prediction Markets Calendar 2026: Month by Month

Quick answer

Florida's 2026 prediction market calendar centers on the April 24 filing deadline, the August 18 primary, hurricane season from June 1 to November 30, the World Cup in June and July, and the November 3 general election. Funding accounts before liquidity arrives is what separates planners from reactors.

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Last checked October 27, 2026

Key takeaways

Politics — Florida congressional and statewide filing deadline April 24. Surprise late entrants will move markets dramatically.
MLB Season Active — Kalshi's season win total contracts for Marlins and Rays are live.
World Cup Futures — Spain and France lead at ~16% each. Best time to enter outright winner contracts before group stage.
NBA Playoffs — Heat watch. Conference winner and championship markets at best liquidity of the season.

Florida Prediction Markets Content Calendar 2026: When to Trade What

Update — September 29, 2026: Still ahead in 2026: the November 3 general election (Donalds vs Jolly for governor, Moody vs Nixon for Senate), the rest of hurricane season to November 30, and the NFL and college football seasons. The primary (August 18) and the World Cup (won by Spain on July 19) are done.

The best prediction market traders don't just react to markets — they plan ahead. Knowing when the highest-value, most liquid markets open and resolve lets you fund accounts in advance, do your research early, and enter positions before the crowd drives prices to equilibrium.

This calendar is built specifically for Florida traders, prioritizing markets with local relevance: Florida politics, Florida sports teams, hurricane season, the World Cup in Miami, and Florida-relevant economics.

April 2026

Politics — Florida congressional and statewide filing deadline April 24. Surprise late entrants will move markets dramatically.
MLB Season Active — Kalshi (opens in a new tab)'s season win total contracts for Marlins and Rays are live.
World Cup Futures — Spain and France lead at ~16% each. Best time to enter outright winner contracts before group stage.
NBA Playoffs — Heat watch. Conference winner and championship markets at best liquidity of the season.

May 2026

Hurricane Season Prep — Kalshi's Atlantic hurricane markets typically open in May. Enter season-level contracts before June 1 attention.
Fed Meeting — May FOMC. Pre-position based on your probability estimate vs. the market's pricing.
NHL Playoffs — Florida Panthers consistently one of Kalshi's most liquid NHL franchises during playoffs.

June 2026

World Cup Group Stage Begins June 11 — Miami (Hard Rock Stadium) is a host venue. Group advancement markets are best risk-adjusted plays.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Opens June 1 — Kalshi's metro-specific landfall contracts activate.
Florida Legislative Session Watch — property insurance reform can affect related economics markets.

July 2026

World Cup Knockout Rounds July 2–19 — highest-liquidity period; final is July 19 at MetLife Stadium.
MLB Trade Deadline late July — Marlins/Rays moves shift season win total contracts.
Florida Summer — tourism data affects Florida economic outlook.

August 2026

FLORIDA PRIMARY DAY — August 18. The most important single day on the Florida prediction market calendar.

Florida Republican Governor Primary (Donalds vs. field)
Florida Republican Senate Primary (Moody vs. field)
All Florida congressional primaries + Democratic primaries

Trading window: August 14–17 is the last window to enter primary markets before resolution. Volatility peaks in the final 72 hours. Hurricane season also enters peak (mid-August through mid-October).

September 2026

NFL Season Kickoff — Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jaguars begin regular seasons. Highest-volume sports period on Kalshi.
Fed Meeting — September FOMC. Late-cycle decisions carry more weight.
Hurricane Season — still peak. Watch closely.

October 2026

Hurricane Season Winding Down — October contracts cheaper than peak; potentially better Yes value.
NFL Midseason — best time for season win total contracts as teams establish performance levels.
General Election Final Stretch — biggest October price moves of the cycle.

November 2026

GENERAL ELECTION DAY — November 3. Resolution day for every 2026 Florida political market.

Florida Governor (Republican/Democrat general)
Florida U.S. Senate (Ashley Moody vs. Dem nominee)
All Florida congressional general elections
National House and Senate control markets
NBA Season Tips Off — Heat and Magic begin regular seasons.
Inter Miami MLS Playoffs — game-by-game contracts if they advance.

December 2026

MLB Hot Stove — 'Will [Player] sign with [Team]?' contracts. Florida fans tracking Marlins/Rays have local advantages.
Year-End Economics Markets — Fed funds rate and Q4 GDP markets resolve.
NHL Regular Season — Panthers playoff odds shift meaningfully by December.

The 5 Biggest Market Events for Florida Traders in 2026

August 18 — Florida Primary Day — biggest single resolution day for local markets
June 11–July 19 — FIFA World Cup — biggest total volume, Miami host city
September–November — NFL Season — highest weekly volume period
June–October — Hurricane Season — most Florida-unique category
November 3 — General Election — all political contracts resolve

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Florida & Legality hub

Prediction Markets in Florida: The Complete 2026 Guide (Kalshi & Polymarket)

Everything Florida residents need to know about trading sports, politics and hurricane markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US in 2026 (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026).

Sources & references

Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Event Contracts (opens in a new tab), CFTC.gov
Wall Street Journal: Prediction markets coverage (opens in a new tab)

External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.

Frequently asked questions

When do hurricane prediction markets open on Kalshi?

Season-level markets typically open in May before the June 1 official start. Storm-specific track and landfall markets open when the NHC issues formal advisories on a named system.

When is the best time to enter Florida political contracts?

Early — 3 to 6 months before the election. Prices are more volatile and less efficiently priced when the event is far away. As Election Day approaches, contracts drift toward their 'true' probability and the edge shrinks.

What is the single highest-volume prediction market day for Florida traders?

The Super Bowl is typically the highest single-day volume event nationally. For Florida-specific political markets, August 18 (primary day) is the biggest local resolution event of the year.