Polymarket NVIDIA Markets 2026: Earnings & Stock Price

Quick answer

Polymarket lists NVIDIA contracts in three families: earnings beats, quarter-end price ladders and longer-horizon AI dominance markets. Earnings contracts resolve on the official 8-K adjusted EPS against a designated consensus snapshot, so the settlement mechanics differ meaningfully between families.

Polymarket US · Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!

MIAPREDICTS

Claim on Polymarket US

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Last checked October 5, 2026

Key takeaways

Earnings-beat contracts
Price ladders
How to trade earnings weeks

Polymarket NVIDIA Markets: Earnings, Stock Price, AI Race (2026)

NVIDIA has become one of the most actively traded single-stock instruments on prediction markets. Polymarket lists NVDA contracts in three broad families — earnings beats, quarter-end price ladders, and longer-horizon 'AI dominance' markets — and each one has different settlement mechanics worth understanding before you trade.

Earnings-beat contracts

These ask whether NVDA reports adjusted EPS at or above the published analyst consensus for the quarter. Resolution comes from the company's official 8-K filing, compared against the consensus snapshot taken at the close of the trading day immediately before earnings. Read each market's rules block — the snapshot source (Bloomberg vs Refinitiv vs FactSet) matters when consensus is close to the line.

Price ladders

Like the gold ladders, these are a stack of binary contracts asking 'will NVDA close at or above $X by [date]?' for various strikes. They settle on NVDA's official closing price on the resolution date, as posted by the listing exchange. Combined, the ladder reflects the market's full implied distribution for NVDA's stock price.

Live Odds

Trending Markets

Real-time prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. Updates every minute.

Updated 09:38:39

How to trade earnings weeks

Liquidity is best in the three trading days leading up to the print, and again immediately after the call as the market digests guidance. Bid-ask spreads widen sharply during the call itself; if you're not already positioned, it's often better to wait for spreads to normalize the next morning.

Versus options

A Polymarket binary is a cleaner expression of a single binary view (beat vs miss) than buying calls or puts — no theta decay between trade and resolution, no implied-vol crush. The trade-off is that you only get paid in a binary jump; you don't capture continuous moves the way options do.

Not financial, legal, or tax advice. Single-stock event contracts can resolve at zero. Nothing here is investment advice — verify each market's settlement rules before trading.

$25 Polymarket trading bonus with code MIAPREDICTSClaim

Macro & Markets hub

The Polymarket Macro Playbook: Hedging Fed Rates, CPI, and Recession Odds in 2026

Macro hedge funds are using Kalshi and Polymarket as a real-time alternative to interest-rate options. Here's the playbook adapted for retail FL traders.

Related guides

Pillar pages

Sources & references

Polymarket US — Fee Schedule — Polymarket Docs
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — SEC.gov
Kalshi & Polymarket coverage — Bloomberg

External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.

Continue reading

Frequently asked questions

Can I bet on NVDA earnings on Polymarket from Florida?

Yes. NVDA event contracts are available to all U.S. users on Polymarket US, Florida included.

How do NVDA earnings markets settle?

On NVDA's official 8-K filing, comparing reported adjusted EPS to the consensus snapshot specified in the market's rules block.

What's the edge versus just buying calls or puts?

A binary contract has no theta or vega risk between trade and resolution — you pay only for the binary outcome. The trade-off is you don't get convexity if the stock makes an outsized move.

When are NVDA contracts most active?

The three trading days leading into earnings, and the day after the call. Outside those windows, liquidity is thinner.

Where can I find the official fee schedule?

Polymarket US publishes its fee formula and parameters at docs.polymarket.us/fees.