Bipartisan Senate Bill Targets Prediction Markets — What's at Risk for Florida Traders
Senators Merkley and Warren plus Rep. Raskin introduced a bill in March 2026 to ban sports, election, and war event contracts. Here's what it means for FL.
Quick answer
The Merkley-Warren bill would restrict sports-related event contracts. Even if it dies in committee it has already moved operator behaviour — Polymarket pulled controversial Iran-related markets in early April after backlash, and platforms are quietly removing edge-case contracts to lower regulatory risk.
Key takeaways
- What the Bill Actually Says
- Why It Probably Won't Pass — But Could
- Concrete Risk Levels for Florida Markets
What the Bill Actually Says
On March 26, 2026, Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), joined by Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), introduced legislation that would prohibit CFTC-regulated event contracts on (1) sporting events, (2) elections, (3) war and military operations, and (4) actions of sitting government officials. The bill specifically names Kalshi (opens in a new tab) and Polymarket (opens in a new tab) and treats their product category as gambling rather than as commodity derivatives.
If passed in its current form, it would force Kalshi and Polymarket to delist their entire sports book and most of their political markets. Macroeconomic contracts (CPI, Fed rates, jobs), crypto, weather, hurricanes, and entertainment would not be affected. The bill follows a separate Merkley proposal from earlier in March that would bar sitting elected officials from trading on prediction markets.
Why It Probably Won't Pass — But Could
The bill faces serious headwinds. The CFTC, under its current chairman, has explicitly defended event contracts as legitimate financial instruments. Kalshi and Polymarket have well-funded legal teams (Kalshi already won a major federal case against the CFTC's prior leadership in 2024). The Coalition for Prediction Markets is lobbying actively, and the broader fintech industry views this category as strategic. With a divided Congress and no clear Republican co-sponsors, the realistic path to passage is narrow.
That said, the bill is a meaningful signal. Even if it dies in committee, the political pressure has already prompted Polymarket to pull controversial 'Iran rescue' markets in early April after backlash. Operators are quietly scrubbing edge-case contracts to reduce regulatory risk. The Overton window has moved.
Concrete Risk Levels for Florida Markets
| Market category | Risk if bill passes | Florida impact |
|---|---|---|
| Sports (Heat, Dolphins, Marlins, etc.) | High — would be delisted | Major — biggest FL volume category |
| Florida governor & senate races | High — would be delisted | Major — losing 2026 election alpha |
| Hurricane landfalls | Low — not covered by bill | None |
| Fed rates / CPI / jobs | Low — not covered | None |
| Crypto contracts | Low — not covered | None |
| Cultural & entertainment | Low — not covered | None |
What Florida Traders Should Do Right Now
- Don't panic-close positions. The bill has not advanced past introduction.
- Diversify across Kalshi and Polymarket so you're not exposed to a single operator's response.
- Watch for committee markup as the leading indicator. If the bill moves to markup, the risk picture changes.
- Build your information edge in non-sports, non-election categories (hurricanes, FL economic indicators, FL-relevant cultural markets) — those are unaffected regardless of the outcome.
- Subscribe to Coalition for Prediction Markets updates and the Next Event Horizon newsletter for primary-source coverage.
The Bigger Picture
Every nascent financial market has gone through this cycle: rapid growth, regulatory backlash, eventual coexistence. Crypto did it. DFS did it. Prediction markets are doing it now. The most likely 2026 outcome is the status quo holding through the year, with operators making small voluntary concessions to defuse pressure. Florida traders are in a structurally good position because the state has shown zero appetite to challenge federal CFTC jurisdiction.
Florida & Legality hub
Prediction Markets in Florida: The Complete 2026 Guide (Kalshi & Polymarket)Everything Florida residents need to know about trading sports, politics and hurricane markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US in 2026 (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026).
Sources & references
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Event Contracts (opens in a new tab), CFTC.gov
- Reuters: Kalshi wins court battle to offer election contracts (opens in a new tab)
- Polymarket and the rise of prediction markets (opens in a new tab) — Associated Press
External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.
Frequently asked questions
When was the bill introduced?
Would the bill ban Kalshi entirely?
Has Florida taken any action against prediction markets?
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21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
