Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? (2026 State-by-State)
Yes — CFTC-regulated prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are legal across most of the US, Florida included. Here's why and where.
- Trading on offshore prediction markets that lack CFTC registration (e.g. PredictIt was forced to wind down in 2022 after losing its CFTC no-action letter).
- Trading on Polymarket's pre-2025 web platform from the US — that platform was illegal for US users until Polymarket acquired CFTC-registered QCEX and relaunched.
- Sports betting through prediction-market wrappers that don't have CFTC market listings (a recurring scam).
Why prediction markets are legal across the US
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC registration as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — the same federal license class as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives trading, which legally preempts state gambling code. Federal courts have repeatedly upheld this distinction.
What about state attorneys general who threatened action?
A handful of state regulators (NJ, NV, OH, others) issued cease-and-desists to Kalshi in 2024-2025. Federal courts have so far sided with Kalshi, ruling that CFTC oversight preempts state gambling enforcement. The platform remains available in every state during these legal challenges.
State-by-state availability
Kalshi is available to verified residents 21+ in 47 states plus D.C. (not Michigan, Nevada or Washington). Polymarket's US iOS app is available to verified residents 21+ in 49 states plus D.C. (not Nevada). Florida is covered by both.
What is not legal
- •Trading on offshore prediction markets that lack CFTC registration (e.g. PredictIt was forced to wind down in 2022 after losing its CFTC no-action letter).
- •Trading on Polymarket's pre-2025 web platform from the US — that platform was illegal for US users until Polymarket acquired CFTC-registered QCEX and relaunched.
- •Sports betting through prediction-market wrappers that don't have CFTC market listings (a recurring scam).
Tax treatment
Net winnings are federally taxable as ordinary income in every state. Some states (FL, TX, WA, NV, TN, SD, AK, WY, NH) have no state income tax. Others tax winnings at standard state income rates.
The federal framework in one paragraph
Event contracts listed on a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market are derivatives governed by the Commodity Exchange Act. Section 2(a)(1)(A) gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over trading on those exchanges, which is why state gaming statutes have repeatedly been held preempted when states tried to apply them to a licensed exchange.
Where the disputes actually are
- •Sports event contracts, which several state regulators have challenged and federal courts have so far allowed to continue.
- •The scope of the CFTC's public-interest review for specific contract categories.
- •Tribal-compact interaction in states with exclusive gaming arrangements.
- •State-level licensing attempts that the DOJ has argued are preempted.
What that means for you today
If you are using a CFTC-registered exchange, the legality question is about the exchange rather than about you as a trader. Florida in particular has taken no action against these venues, which is why it is one of the more settled states to trade from.
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything Florida residents need to know about legally trading sports, politics, and hurricane markets on Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026.
Related guides
Pillar pages
Sources & references
- 1.Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
- 2.CFTC Final Rule on Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
- 3.Kalshi wins court battle to offer election contracts — Reuters
- 4.National Council on Problem Gambling — 1-800-GAMBLER — NCPG
External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.
Fifteen years in regulated gambling: that's Catie Di Stefano's track record, beginning at Betsson Group in Malta and continuing through nearly five years at Gaming Innovation Group (GiG).
She went on to run an independent consultancy across European and US iGaming brands — including a licensed engagement with Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City under a New Jersey DGE vendor license — and spoke publicly on Florida's gaming market as early as 2022, at a Next.io panel in New York.