Heat NBA Cup markets agree on a 2.5% title price

These are prices captured at a stated time, not a prediction that Miami will win or lose. They also answer separate questions. Winning the Cup, winning a group, reaching the knockout rounds and reaching the final are different outcomes. You need the market label alongside the number to know what you are reading. For the Heat's wider season markets, see our Miami Heat prediction markets guide.

What did the Heat title markets show?

At 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026, Kalshi quoted the Heat champion contract at a 2¢ bid and 3¢ ask. Its last trade was 5¢, outside that quote. Using the midpoint of the bid and ask gives the 2.5% reference price.

Polymarket US also showed a 2¢ bid and 3¢ ask at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Polymarket US showed no last trade at that check, so its midpoint was 2.5%. The venue gap was therefore 0.0 percentage points.

That distinction between a last trade and a current quote matters here. Repeating the old 5¢ trade as the current Kalshi reference would suggest disagreement between the platforms that this check does not show. The quoted title markets lined up when measured on the same basis.

Kalshi's Heat champion contract had recorded 31,571 contracts of volume at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Volume describes trading activity, not a count of independent people backing Miami. It also does not tell you how much you could buy at the displayed ask.

Why is the group quote a range?

Kalshi's East Group B winner market for Miami showed a 16¢ bid and 25¢ ask at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Only 11 contracts had traded. That is a thin market, so the range is more useful than presenting one crisp percentage.

The last trade was 26¢, above the current ask. It therefore does not supply a current in-quote reference. A historical trade can remain on the screen after the quotes around it have moved.

You should read that group market on its own terms. A bid is an offer to buy; an ask is an offer to sell. Neither tells you that a large order can trade at that price. The group market lists a December 5, 2026 close, but its own rules govern the result.

For the group-stage schedule and how the Cup works, see our Heat NBA Cup guide.

What did knockout qualification cost?

Kalshi's Heat knockout-round qualifier had a 23¢ bid and 31¢ ask, with no trades yet, at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Its midpoint reference was 27.0%.

Polymarket US quoted the same qualification question at 16¢ to 32¢ at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. That wide range needs to stay visible. Turning it into one percentage would hide how far apart the quoted buying and selling sides were.

The Kalshi midpoint is a reference between quotes, not evidence that someone had completed a trade there. The absence of trades in that contract is relevant even though a numerical midpoint is available. Read the quote and activity together before treating the number as a strong signal.

What about reaching the final?

At 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026, Kalshi's Heat finals qualifier quoted 1¢ to 9¢ with no trades. Polymarket US quoted 1¢ to 12¢ at the same time. Both markets were thin, so both are shown as ranges.

Those finals quotes should stay separate from the champion comparison. Mixing a thin range with a title midpoint can create a story that the order books do not support. The useful observation is simply that these particular finals markets offered a less precise reading.

How should you read the full picture?

The title markets agreed. The group market had very little recorded trading. The knockout question had a Kalshi midpoint and a wider Polymarket US range. That is enough to describe the check without adding standings, upcoming games or a reason for the prices.

Kalshi's champion event names NBA.com and ESPN as settlement sources. Check the exact contract rules for the outcome you are viewing, because a champion contract and a qualifier contract ask different questions.

ProphetX (opens in a new tab) (Trade $40 Get $40), Kalshi (opens in a new tab) (Trade $25 Get $25) and Polymarket US (opens in a new tab) (deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus), code MIAPREDICTS. 21+. Terms apply, see the offer box.

Sources

• Kalshi market data, Pro Basketball Cup (champion, East Group B winner, knockout and finals qualifiers), checked 12:52 UTC on November 11, 2026.
• Polymarket US market data, NBA Cup winner and qualifier markets, checked 12:52 UTC on November 11, 2026.
• Kalshi contract rules, Pro Basketball Cup champion (kalshi.com), read November 11, 2026.

21+. Trading involves risk.

Frequently asked questions

What was the Heat title price?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket US had a 2.5% reference at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026.

Was the group market busy?

No. Kalshi recorded 11 contracts and quoted 16¢ to 25¢ at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026.

What was Kalshi's knockout reference?

A 27.0% midpoint at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026, with no trades yet.

Why show finals ranges?

The finals markets were thin: Kalshi 1¢ to 9¢ and Polymarket US 1¢ to 12¢ at 12:52 UTC, Nov 11, 2026.