Florida governor race 2026: Donalds vs Jolly

Key dates for Miami-Dade voters

Date	What happens	Detail
Monday, October 5, 2026	Last day to register to vote	This deadline has passed
Monday, October 19 to Sunday, November 1, 2026	Early voting in Miami-Dade	28 sites, open 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. every day. The statewide mandatory period is October 24 to 31, so Miami-Dade opens five days earlier
Thursday, October 22, 2026	Last day to request a mailed ballot	The request must be in by 5:00 p.m. This is the request deadline, not the return deadline
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Election Day	Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. On Election Day you vote only at your assigned precinct
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Vote-by-mail return deadline	The ballot must be received by 7:00 p.m., not just mailed
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Statewide preliminary results go online	After 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. These returns are unofficial
Thursday, November 5, 2026	Deadline to cure a vote-by-mail or provisional ballot	5:00 p.m. Counts can still change after election night
Saturday, November 7, 2026	Counties' first unofficial returns due	Noon. Includes provisional and cured ballots
Thursday, November 12, 2026	Second unofficial returns due	3:00 p.m. Applies only if a machine recount is triggered
Monday, November 16, 2026	County official returns due	Noon. Includes overseas ballots and any manual recount
Tuesday, November 17, 2026	Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the official returns	8:00 a.m. This is when the statewide result becomes official
Tuesday, January 5, 2027	The new four-year term begins	The Florida Constitution sets the start as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in January

Voting dates come from the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections (opens in a new tab) and the Florida Division of Elections (opens in a new tab). The steps after Election Day come from the state's results reporting timeline (opens in a new tab). For every contest on the county ballot, see our Miami election playbook.

Who is running for Florida governor?

In Florida the governor and lieutenant governor run together, so you cast one vote for a ticket. The official Miami-Dade sample ballot (opens in a new tab) prints eight tickets, and the state's candidate list (opens in a new tab) shows the same eight as qualified.

• Byron Donalds and Bryan Avila (Republican). Donalds is the US representative for Florida's 19th Congressional District and lists Naples as his hometown. Avila served as state senator for District 39, which covered part of Miami-Dade County.
• David Jolly and Gwen Graham (Democrat). Jolly represented Florida's 13th Congressional District from March 2014 to January 2017, when he was a Republican. Graham represented the 2nd Congressional District as a Democrat from 2015 to 2017.
• Scott Eckhard Jewett and Nicole Skelly (Libertarian Party of Florida).
• Five tickets with no party affiliation: Charles Burkett and Ruben A. Coto; Frank J. Russo and Rachel Rodriguez; Moliere "Moe" Dimanche and Benjiman Rojas; Dean Ocean Abrams and Joe Van Vactor; Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto and Juan Santana.
• Two qualified write-in tickets: Kathy Anderson with Daniel Nokovich, and Erik Morris with LeRoy Alaways. Write-in names are not printed. The ballot has a blank write-in line instead.

How the August 18 primaries went

The state's official primary results (opens in a new tab) show Donalds won the Republican primary with 47.8% of the vote in an 11-candidate field. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins was second with 25.2%, followed by James Fishback with 10.5% and Paul Renner with 8.5%. Jolly won the Democratic primary with 60.9% in a six-candidate field. Dayna Marie Foster was second with 15.1%.

Two names from early coverage of this race are not on the ballot. Casey DeSantis does not appear in the state's candidate list, and Jerry Demings is listed there as withdrawn.

Why the seat is open

Ron DeSantis won the office in 2018 and again in 2022. Article IV, section 5 of the Florida Constitution (opens in a new tab) says a person who has served as governor for more than six years in two consecutive terms cannot be elected for the next term. The same section starts the new term on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in January, which is January 5, 2027.

The other statewide contest at the top of the ballot is covered in our Florida Senate race guide.

The Miami-Dade angle

Miami-Dade has not voted the same way in the last two governor elections. These are the state's official figures for the county:

• 2018: Democrat Andrew Gillum carried Miami-Dade with 478,958 votes (59.9%) to 311,581 (39.0%) for Ron DeSantis. DeSantis won statewide by 32,463 votes, 49.6% to 49.2%.
• 2022: DeSantis carried Miami-Dade with 393,532 votes (55.3%) to 312,972 (44.0%) for Charlie Crist, and won statewide 59.4% to 40.0%.
• 2026 primaries: in Miami-Dade, Donalds took 51,962 of the 89,948 Republican votes for governor (57.8%), and Jolly took 58,381 of the 110,427 Democratic votes (52.9%).

Past results describe past elections. They do not tell you what the county will do this time.

On the practical side, the county runs 28 early voting sites from Hialeah's John F. Kennedy Library to Miami Beach City Hall and the Homestead Community Center, plus Florida International University and Miami Dade College's Kendall Campus. Every site has a secure drop-off station for vote-by-mail ballots, and the Supervisor of Elections posts wait times through the day. The county ballot is long and depends on your address, so pull up your own customized ballot in the county's Voter Information tool (opens in a new tab) before you go.

One market note for local readers: we found no contract on who carries Miami-Dade in the governor race. Polymarket US lists a Miami-Dade County winner market, but it is tied to the US Senate race.

What do the polls say?

Poll	Field dates (2026)	Sample	Donalds (R)	Jolly (D)
St. Pete Polls (for FloridaPolitics.com) (opens in a new tab)	October 5 to 7	836 likely voters, ±3.4	44.7%	44.6%
YouGov (opens in a new tab)	September 28 to October 5	3,813 likely voters, ±2.7	47%	45%
James Madison Institute (Targoz Market Research) (opens in a new tab)	September 28 to October 4	1,174 registered voters, ±2.8	48%	39%
Mason-Dixon (for NBC 6 / Telemundo Station Group) (opens in a new tab)	September 28 to October 1	625 likely voters, ±4	48%	41%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research (opens in a new tab)	September 14 to 21	830 Florida adults surveyed online; likely-voter estimates, ±4.3	51%	39%
St. Pete Polls (for FloridaPolitics.com) (opens in a new tab)	September 15 to 17	913 likely voters, ±3.2	43.5%	43.4%

Each row links to the pollster's own release. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts, and several of these gaps are inside the margin of error. The James Madison Institute release also reports the 849 respondents it classed as likely voters, at 52% for Donalds and 42% for Jolly. The polls use different methods and samples, so read them as a range and not as one number.

How do prediction markets cover this race?

An election contract pays $1 if its stated outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The market price sits between those two numbers and moves as people trade. The federal regulator, the CFTC (opens in a new tab), describes a contract's price as traders' perceived probability of the outcome. It is not a poll, a forecast or a result. Markets and polls can disagree, and either can be wrong.

We do not quote prices on this page because they change by the minute. Check the live market in the app, and remember that you can lose the amount you put in.

How a Florida governor contract settles

• Kalshi, Florida Governor winner. The market is written by party. Its rules say a side resolves to Yes if a representative of that party is inaugurated as the governor of Florida pursuant to the 2026 election. The rules also allow an earlier determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
• Kalshi, Florida Governor and Senate combination. Each contract names one party for governor and one for Senate. Both parts must happen for it to pay. If either part fails, the contract resolves to No.
• Polymarket US, Florida Governor Election Winner. A side settles to Yes if that party's nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Florida. The outcome is taken from the relevant government authorities and includes any runoff, tiebreak or other procedure under state rules.
• Polymarket US, Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory. Contracts are ranges of the winning party nominee's margin. The margin is the difference in vote share between the first and second candidates, taken from state election authorities. If the named party's nominee does not finish first, that range settles to No.

Both winner markets show Donalds and Jolly by name, but the written terms refer to the party or its nominee. Each market offers only a Republican side and a Democratic side, so the other tickets on the ballot have no contract of their own. Read the full rules in the app before you trade, and leave a contract alone if the wording is unclear to you. New to all this? Our how to trade guide walks through the basics.

When will the result be known?

Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The state's election FAQ says live statewide results go online after 8:00 p.m. Eastern, which gives Florida's Central time counties time to close. Counties must report their first figures within 30 minutes of polls closing and update every 45 minutes after that. Everything published on election night is unofficial.

Voters have until 5:00 p.m. on November 5 to cure a vote-by-mail or provisional ballot. Counties send first unofficial returns by noon on November 7 and official returns by noon on November 16. The Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the result at 8:00 a.m. on November 17. A contract settles under its own written rules, which may be earlier or later than those dates.

Which platforms cover the Florida governor race?

For politics, start with Kalshi, then Polymarket US, then OG. Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Access to a platform and a listing for one specific race are separate questions, so confirm the listing in the app before you do anything else. The Florida status for each platform is in the Where things stand box at the top of this page.

Our Florida politics hub lists the other election markets we follow.

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for Florida governor in 2026?

Republican Byron Donalds, with running mate Bryan Avila, faces Democrat David Jolly, with running mate Gwen Graham. The ballot also prints a Libertarian ticket led by Scott Eckhard Jewett and five tickets with no party affiliation, and the state lists two qualified write-in tickets.

When is the Florida governor election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time, and on Election Day you vote at your assigned precinct.

When does early voting start in Miami-Dade?

Miami-Dade early voting runs from Monday, October 19 to Sunday, November 1, 2026, from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. every day at 28 sites. The statewide mandatory period is October 24 to 31.

Why is Ron DeSantis not running for governor again?

He is term-limited. The Florida Constitution says a person who has served as governor for more than six years in two consecutive terms cannot be elected for the next term. DeSantis was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022.

Who won the Florida governor primaries?

Byron Donalds won the August 18, 2026 Republican primary with 47.8% of the vote in an 11-candidate field. David Jolly won the Democratic primary with 60.9% in a six-candidate field. Both figures are from the state's official results.

How does a Florida governor election contract settle?

It depends on the platform's written rules. On Kalshi, the market resolves on which party's representative is inaugurated as governor after the 2026 election. On Polymarket US, it settles on which party's nominee wins the election, as reported by government authorities. Read the rules in the app first.

Can Florida residents trade the governor race on Kalshi or Polymarket US?

Access is a status, not a blanket legal ruling. The status for each platform is in the Where things stand box, and our Florida status guide explains what the state has and has not done.