Miami Election Prediction Markets: A Reader's Playbook

Key dates for Miami-Dade voters

Date	Event	Time (ET)	Why it matters
October 19 to November 1	Early voting in Miami-Dade (28 sites)	7:00 a.m.–7:00 p.m. daily	Any registered county voter can use any early voting site. The statewide mandatory period is October 24 to 31
Thursday, October 22	Deadline to request a mailed ballot	5:00 p.m.	This is the request deadline, not the return deadline
Tuesday, November 3	Election Day	7:00 a.m.–7:00 p.m.	On Election Day you vote only at your assigned precinct
Tuesday, November 3	Vote-by-mail return deadline	7:00 p.m.	The ballot must be received by then, not just mailed
Tuesday, November 3	Statewide preliminary results go online	After 8:00 p.m.	The state waits for polls to close in its Central time counties. These returns are unofficial
Thursday, November 5	Deadline to cure a vote-by-mail or provisional ballot	5:00 p.m.	Counts can still change after election night
Saturday, November 7	Counties' first unofficial returns due	Noon	Includes provisional and cured ballots
Thursday, November 12	Second unofficial returns due, if a machine recount is triggered	3:00 p.m.	Applies only to a race close enough for a recount
Monday, November 16	County official returns due	Noon	Includes overseas ballots and any manual recount
Tuesday, November 17	Elections Canvassing Commission certifies official returns	8:00 a.m.	This is when the statewide result becomes official

Voting dates come from the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections (opens in a new tab) and the Florida Division of Elections (opens in a new tab). The steps after Election Day come from the state's results reporting timeline (opens in a new tab).

Which Florida and Miami-Dade contests are on the ballot?

Every Miami-Dade voter sees the two statewide headline contests, governor and US Senate, along with the three Cabinet offices, the judicial retention questions and the three state amendments. Our Florida governor market guide and Florida Senate special election guide cover those two contests in depth.

Everything else depends on your address. The county's printed sample ballot is a master list: it shows five congressional districts, state Senate and House seats, County Commission District 5, a School Board seat, circuit judges and more than 20 municipalities, and no single voter gets all of them. Use the county's Voter Information tool (opens in a new tab) to see your customized ballot before you compare it with any market. The Florida congressional markets guide and the Florida politics hub cover the wider map.

What does an election-contract price mean?

A price is what traders are willing to pay under one contract's terms. It moves with news, attention and how many people are trading. It is not a vote count and it is not a promise.

Example: a made-up Yes contract costs 40 cents and pays $1 if its exact condition is met. You can read that price as a market-implied chance of about 40%, before fees. If the condition is not met, the contract pays nothing and the 40 cents is lost. This example is invented and is not a live quote.

What should you read before trading a political contract?

Read the exact question, the outcome that counts, the source used to settle it, the deadline and the fees. Two markets on the same race can be written differently, and the rules we read for the Florida contests show how:

• Kalshi's governor and Senate winner markets are written by party. The rule asks which party's representative is inaugurated as governor, or sworn in as senator, and the candidate's name is the label on the contract. The market notes say it can be determined early once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
• Polymarket US's governor and Senate winner markets settle on whether the named party's nominee wins the election, with the outcome taken from the relevant government authorities, including any runoff or tiebreak procedure.
• Kalshi's Florida mail-vote and early-vote markets do not settle on the official count. They settle on the figure shown by the University of Florida Election Lab's early voting tracker at 10:00 a.m. ET on November 4.
• The Amendment 3 markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US use a different name for the measure than the title printed on the ballot, so match the amendment number, not the wording.

If the wording is unclear to you, leave the contract alone. Our how to trade guide explains order types, and the glossary defines the terms.

How do Florida's election-night results come in?

Florida counts fast, and the order of the count matters if you are watching a price move. Counties must finish tabulating early votes and the mail ballots already processed before Election Day. Their first report is due within 30 minutes of polls closing, and it includes those early and mail results. Updates follow every 45 minutes.

The statewide results site starts showing returns after 8:00 p.m. ET, once polls have closed in the Panhandle counties on Central time. Everything published that night is preliminary. The first batch of results is not a sample of the whole electorate, so a sharp early price move is not an official call. Contracts settle under their own written rules, not on a social media post.

Where should Miami-Dade readers check results and local news?

Start with the official sources: the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections for county returns and the Florida Division of Elections for statewide results. Both label election-night figures as unofficial until certification.

For context on why something is moving, South Florida has strong local reporting. The Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald cover county politics in English and Spanish, Florida Politics and Politico Florida follow Tallahassee and the campaigns, and WPLG Local 10 and WSVN 7 carry election-night coverage. Use them to understand the news. None of them settles a contract.

Which platforms cover Florida elections?

For politics, start with Kalshi, then Polymarket US, then OG. Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Platform access and a specific election listing are separate questions, so confirm the listing in the app first. Our Kalshi review, Polymarket US review and OG review cover fees and funding, the comparison page puts them side by side, and the responsible trading page covers limits.

Frequently asked questions

Who is on the Florida governor ballot in Miami-Dade?

The official Miami-Dade sample ballot lists Byron Donalds and Bryan Avila for the Republican Party and David Jolly and Gwen Graham for the Democratic Party. It also lists a Libertarian ticket, five tickets with no party affiliation and a write-in line.

Who is on the US Senate ballot in Florida?

The ballot lists Ashley Moody (Republican), Angie Nixon (Democrat) and Neil J. Gillespie (no party affiliation). The seat is being filled in a special election held on the same day as the general election.

Can a contract with a higher price still lose?

It can. A price shows what traders think under that contract's terms, and traders can be wrong. If the contract resolves against you, you lose the amount you paid for it.

Is a market price the same as a poll?

They are different things. A poll samples people with its own method. A contract price comes from traders' orders. Neither one replaces official voting information or the certified result.

Does every Miami-Dade race have a prediction market?

Do not assume so. Platforms tend to list statewide and congressional contests, while county and city contests are listed far less often. Check the app for current listings and read the contract before drawing any conclusion from it.

When are Florida election results official?

Election-night returns are preliminary. Counties report unofficial returns in the days after the election, and the state Elections Canvassing Commission certifies official results two weeks after Election Day.

Can Florida residents trade election contracts?

Access is a status, not a blanket legal ruling. The status for each platform is in the Where things stand box, and our Florida status guide explains what the state's gaming regulator has and has not said.