Kalshi Now Controls 89% of the US Prediction Market — What It Means for Florida Traders

Kalshi Now Commands 89% of US Prediction Market Volume

A Bank of America report released in April 2026 confirmed what prediction market observers had suspected: Kalshi (opens in a new tab) now controls approximately 89% of the US prediction market by trading volume, with weekly volume up 6% week-over-week as of the report date.

The report, which tracks federally regulated US prediction market activity, shows Kalshi's dominance accelerating — not declining — despite the launch of competing platforms from FanDuel, DraftKings, Robinhood, Fanatics, and others in late 2025.

For Florida traders, this data point has direct practical implications for where to focus your trading activity.

Why Kalshi's 89% Share Matters for Florida Traders

Liquidity follows dominance. With 89% of US prediction market volume, Kalshi has meaningfully tighter bid-ask spreads than any competing platform. On a Florida governor race contract, the difference between Kalshi's spread and a smaller platform's spread can be 3–5 cents per contract — a meaningful cost on larger positions.

Market depth on niche Florida markets. For lower-volume contracts — congressional district races, hurricane landfall for specific metros, early-season baseball win totals — Kalshi's depth advantage is even more pronounced. Competing platforms often have thin or non-existent order books on these markets.

Ecosystem integrations. Kalshi's 89% share isn't just direct — it powers Robinhood Predictions (11 billion contracts in year one), Coinbase Predictions (launched January 2026), and Sleeper Predictions (launched February 2026). These integrations mean Kalshi's liquidity reaches across the entire prediction market ecosystem.

The Regulatory Battle: What Could Change Kalshi's Position

• Massachusetts: a judge ordered Kalshi to stop sports contracts in January 2026, but an appeals judge paused that order on 17 Feb 2026 while the state's highest court decides the appeal. Kalshi filed an emergency motion to stay.
• Nevada and Arizona: Both states have taken action against Kalshi, arguing it operates as an unlicensed sportsbook.
• Florida: No regulatory action has been taken against Kalshi. The state has not joined the group challenging CFTC jurisdiction.

Where Florida stands: the state has not moved against Kalshi or any other prediction market (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Florida has taken no enforcement action (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026); the CFTC has sued several other states that did.

What the 89% Share Means for Competitors

• DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts both launched with CME Group as their exchange partner. CME order books are shared between them — neither has exclusive liquidity advantages.
• Polymarket (opens in a new tab) US focuses on sports-only and is still in beta rollout. Its global platform is the largest by volume worldwide, but the US-regulated product is nascent.
• Crypto.com (opens in a new tab) (OG) launched its standalone app in February 2026 and has shown 'roughly 40x weekly growth' according to its own reporting — but from a very small base.

For Florida traders, the practical takeaway: Kalshi is the default choice for liquidity-sensitive trading, while competitors offer advantages in specific niches (FanDuel for existing FanDuel users, Polymarket US for sports, Robinhood for existing investors).

Looking Ahead: Florida-Specific Prediction Market Growth

1. August 18 primary — will generate significant Florida political market volume
2. Hurricane season — Kalshi's category with zero peer competition
3. World Cup at Hard Rock Stadium — Miami's home matches will drive elevated local trading
4. November 3 general election — biggest Florida political resolution day in two years

Florida remains uniquely well-positioned in the prediction market ecosystem: a state with one monopoly sports betting operator (Hard Rock Bet) that creates outsized demand for prediction market alternatives, no state-level regulatory challenges to the CFTC framework, and a politically, culturally, and meteorologically rich event calendar.