Can You Bet on Hurricanes? Kalshi Weather Markets in 2026

Quick answer

Yes — you can trade hurricane outcomes in the U.S. through Kalshi's CFTC-regulated weather contracts, which cover named-storm counts and landfall windows. They are event contracts on a federal exchange, not sportsbook wagers, and are available to Florida residents.

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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Last checked October 5, 2026

Key takeaways

Atlantic named-storm count — 'How many named storms will the Atlantic basin produce this season?' resolved on NOAA / National Hurricane Center counts.
U.S. landfall — 'Will any Cat-3+ hurricane make U.S. landfall by [date]?' or specific regional variants.
Florida landfall — windows asking whether any hurricane makes Florida landfall by a defined date.

Can You Bet on Hurricanes? Yes — Here's How (2026)

Kalshi is the U.S.-regulated venue that has consistently listed hurricane event contracts. They are listed as event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange, a cousin of the weather derivatives insurers use to hedge catastrophe risk. The contracts are listed on Kalshi's CFTC-designated exchange, which accepts Florida residents (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026).

What kinds of contracts are available

Atlantic named-storm count — 'How many named storms will the Atlantic basin produce this season?' resolved on NOAA / National Hurricane Center counts.
U.S. landfall — 'Will any Cat-3+ hurricane make U.S. landfall by [date]?' or specific regional variants.
Florida landfall — windows asking whether any hurricane makes Florida landfall by a defined date.

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How resolution works

Hurricane contracts settle on official National Hurricane Center bulletins. The specific source — and what counts as a 'landfall' for each market — is spelled out in the individual market's rules. The Atlantic hurricane season formally runs from June 1 to November 30, and most seasonal-count contracts resolve at season end.

How Floridians actually use these markets

Many South Florida homeowners use FL-landfall contracts as a rough personal hedge: a position that pays out if a major hurricane hits offsets some of the financial pain from deductibles and out-of-pocket damage. This is not insurance — there's no claims process, no guarantee the contract pays exactly the damage you take — but it behaves like a parametric hedge tied to a publicly observable trigger.

What to read before trading

The rules block on each individual market.
NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook, published before the season begins.
Our hurricane-season guide at /guides/hurricane-season-prediction-markets-2026.

Not financial, legal, or tax advice. A hurricane event contract is a derivatives position, not insurance. There is no claims process and no guarantee the payout will match your damages.

How hurricane contracts are written

Weather contracts settle on published official data rather than on judgement. Named-storm-count markets settle on the season total recorded by the National Hurricane Center, and landfall markets settle on whether a storm meeting the stated criteria makes landfall inside a defined geographic window by a defined date. The precision of that wording is the whole trade.

The hedging use case

Florida homeowners sometimes use landfall contracts as a small, defined-risk offset against deductible exposure.
The payout is binary, so it is a rough hedge rather than an insurance substitute.
Liquidity peaks during the season and thins in the winter months.
Contract wording, not the storm itself, decides settlement — read the geographic definition carefully.

An ethical note

Trading a storm contract does not change the storm. If you are in an evacuation zone, follow county guidance first; treat these markets as a financial instrument, not as a reason to watch a forecast differently.

Not financial, legal, or tax advice. Weather contracts are not insurance and do not replace a homeowners policy. Follow official emergency guidance during any storm event.

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Related guides

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Sources & references

National Hurricane Center — NOAA / NHC
NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
KalshiEX LLC — DCM Registration — CFTC.gov

External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.

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Frequently asked questions

Is hurricane betting legal in Florida?

Available (as of October 3, 2026). Kalshi's weather contracts are listed on a CFTC-regulated exchange that accepts Florida residents (status: Available, as of 3 October 2026).

Can I bet on which specific hurricane will hit?

Listed contracts focus on regional or state-level landfall windows and seasonal counts rather than named-storm targeting.

How does Kalshi source hurricane data?

From official NOAA / National Hurricane Center bulletins. Each market's rules block lists the specific bulletin and reporting cadence used.

Is a hurricane contract the same as parametric insurance?

No. It behaves similarly in that both pay on an objective trigger rather than on damage assessment, but a Kalshi contract is a derivatives position, not an insurance policy.

When does the Atlantic hurricane season run?

June 1 through November 30, per NOAA. Most seasonal-count contracts resolve at season end.

Which data source settles hurricane contracts?

Kalshi's weather markets settle on official National Hurricane Center advisories. The exact advisory and cutoff time are named in each contract's rules.

What source settles hurricane contracts?

Official National Hurricane Center data, as named in each contract rules block.

Can hurricane contracts replace insurance?

No. They pay a fixed amount on a defined event and are not tied to your actual loss.